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Lakers win 16th NBA title; Jackson could returnBasketball Betting Lines06/18/2010 - LOS ANGELES (AP) -With his record 11th NBA championship secured, Phil Jackson was evasive about his future with the Los Angeles Lakers. He's in the final year of his contract, with no word about a possible extension. He had said that if the Lakers won their second straight title, it would improve his chances of returning. He turns 65 in September. ``It does improve my chances,'' Jackson said after the Lakers' 83-79 victory over the Boston Celtics on Thursday night. ``That's a wonderful thing. That's as much as I'll talk about it.'' During the trophy presentation, Jackson said he would take some time to mull his future and decide in a week. Kobe Bryant publicly appealed for Jackson to come back while accepting his finals MVP award for the second consecutive year. ``He knows how bad I want him back. I've told him that,'' he said. ``I've been openly blunt about that and told him how much I want him back. Let's go for it again. Let's go for it again.'' --- CELEBRATING A TITLE: The Lakers will celebrate their 16th NBA title with a parade on Monday. The players and their families will board a customized float at Staples Center and wind their way two miles down South Figueroa Street toward the campus of Southern California, ending at the school's Galen Center. Players will interact with fans from the float that will be equipped with audio. Lakers officials said that will help mitigate anticipated pedestrian and traffic congestion, while also relieving security, sanitation and other public services that were required last year. In 2009, the privately funded parade and rally attended by more than 95,000 people was held at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Although the Lakers said they're hosting the parade, it wasn't immediately clear who is footing the bill this year. --- ARTEST CONFESSES: When Ron Artest played for the Indiana Pacers for parts of five seasons, he admitted he didn't always give his best effort. Having won his first NBA title, Artest expressed regret for his subpar performances and attitude while with the Pacers. ``When I was younger, I bailed out on my Indiana team,'' he said Thursday night. ``I feel sometimes like a coward when I see those guys, because it's like, 'Man, I'm on the Lakers and I had a chance to win with you guys,' and I feel almost like a coward.'' Artest's colorful career has been filled with second chances. He was suspended for 73 games after charging into the stands and throwing punches when a fan threw beer on him during a game in Detroit in 2004. --- SAD FACES: As jubilant as the Lakers' locker room was, it was just the opposite in the Celtics' room. ``There were a lot of tears. A lot of tears,'' Ray Allen said. ``This is probably one of the hardest feelings that I've felt in my lifetime.'' Emotions churned for Glen Davis, who finished with six points and nine rebounds in nearly 21 minutes. ``I feel like I wanted to cry. I feel like I wanted to be mad,'' he said. ``I'm just trying to get in a positive mind and think it's going to help me as a player. I'm blessed. Most guys don't have the chance that I've had being able to play in the finals twice in three years. Hopefully next year we can be that same team and go back.'' --- FREE AGENT MUSINGS: With superstar free agents LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh hitting the market on July 1, there's a possibility that two of them could end up on the same team. ``I don't want to think about that,'' Kobe Bryant said. ``I don't want to think about playing against both of them at the same time. I want to enjoy this for a little bit.'' --- BRIEF BREAK: The longest possible NBA finals means the shortest possible turnaround until the draft. There will be only a week between the time David Stern hands out the Larry O'Brien trophy in Los Angeles and calls the name of the No. 1 pick, likely Kentucky freshman point guard John Wall, next Thursday night at Madison Square Garden in New York. ``It's scary to know that the draft is close,'' Boston coach Doc Rivers said before Game 6. ``I hadn't thought about that at all.'' Rivers said Thursday he only found out the other day that Boston has the 19th pick. To help get everyone ready, NBA TV will run draft preview shows Saturday (Eastern Conference) and Sunday (West). Former Nets coach Lawrence Frank will join the studio team to break down each team's needs.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
<< Rowdy revelers crowd streets after Lakers win
LOS ANGELES (AP) -Crowds of rowdy revelers poured into the streets around Staples Center after Game 7 of the NBA finals on Thursday night, rocking cars, setting bonfires and throwing rocks and bottles at officers.Nine people had been arrested for pu
<< Rowdy revelers surrounding cars after Lakers win
<< Bryant, Jackson champions again; Lakers down Boston to claim NBA title
<< LA police declare unlawful assembly
<< Artest comes up big for Lakers in Game 7 win
U.S. Open First Round News & Notes >>
Pebble Beach, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You will read a lot about how Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson failed to make a birdie Thursday during the first round of the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. It was the first time in their professional careers th
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El Duque expected to throw Tuesday PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- New York Mets pitcher Orlando Hernandez, sidelined at spring training because of arthritis in his neck, is expected to resume throwing on Tuesday. Hernandez received a cortisone shot Thursday after leaving camp and returning to New York to have his neck examined. The 41-year-old right-hander is penciled in as the team's No. 2 starter behind Tom Glavine. El Duque's health is a major issue for the Mets, who won the NL East in 2007 and came within one victory of the World Series. Their aging and unsettled rotation is a big question mark this year. MySportsbook.com has the Mets as -110 favorites to repeat as NL East champions odds. Hernandez went 11-11 with a 4.66 ERA last season, including 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 20 starts after the Mets acquired him from Arizona in late May. But he missed the playoffs because of a torn calf muscle. New York already is without Pedro Martinez, out until at least midseason following rotator cuff surgery. Among those competing for starting jobs are prospects Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and Jason Vargas, plus veterans Chan Ho Park, Jorge Sosa and Aaron Sele. Notes: Mets manager Willie Randolph is excited about two new utility players he could have on his bench: Damion Easley and David Newhan. ''Their value is really all over the place,'' Randolph said. Easley can play anywhere in the infield and could be used as an emergency outfielder, though Randolph said he would prefer to keep the veteran in the infield. Newhan, meanwhile, can play second base, third or any outfield position for the Mets. ''I love versatility,'' Randolph said. ''I love guys that can give me options when I need them to step in.'' Additional baseball lines and World Series odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.
How to bet pro footballThere is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB. These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon. Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality. Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on. Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain. Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top. The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap? To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense. Home vs. Away Teams Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player. Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week. Price ranges Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time. The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons. Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1. Playoff teams It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time. Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them. This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999. Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games. Scoring defense and scoring offense Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1. Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period. There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1. The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail. Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road. Scoring margin An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team. In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season. Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers. In sum Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap. The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits. To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs. |
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