CFL East: Trying to separate fact from fiction
Football Betting Lines
07/16/2010 -
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Hamilton and Winnipeg preoccupied with
each other and Montreal being Montreal, the Toronto Argonauts are finding
themselves in a division trying to find itself.
A contradicting start to the season has caused some fog in the East, with
pretenders playing contenders, and sleepers, well ... sleeping.
TORONTO ARGONAUTS
The Argos woke up before everyone else this week, charging up on a home opener
at the Rogers Centre to upset Calgary and improve to 2-1. Toronto's second
straight win leaves the Boatman alone at the top of the East, and has given
the club some rare wiggle room.
Anytime teams such as the Argos, who have had the league's worst offense and
have missed the playoffs for the last two seasons, realize early success,
proceed with caution.
It's a simple approach to not being fooled by a team's ability to temporarily
suppress bad habits and rise to the occasion. But this Argos team - no matter
the likelihood it has trouble maintaining this early success - is not the
same one as past editions.
New coach Jim Barker has the Double Blue playing a new brand of football, one
that comes from behind and wins close games.
With a quarterback controversy on paper all but erased - for now - former NFL
signal-caller Cleo Lemon has emerged as Barker's man and looks as though he
will be given the opportunity to grow into the game up north.
For the Argos, it's better than going south.
In light of the early game this week, here are Toronto's key players from the
27-24 win over Calgary in Week 3:
Offensive performer: Cory Boyd. Another man benefiting from a new voice
calling the plays has been rookie running back Boyd (20 carries, 142 yards),
who has strung together consecutive 100-yard games.
Defensive/special teams: Kevin Eiben. In his 11th year with the Boatman, Eiben
continues to be a factor on the defensive end. After registering 11 tackles
opening night in Calgary, the linebacker picked off two passes against
Winnipeg in Week 2 and was a big reason the Argos beat Calgary in the second
meeting of the two teams.
Next up: BC Lions. If the Argos can contain the run, the Boatman should
improve to 3-1.
MONTREAL ALOUETTES
It would be easy to say the Alouettes are primed to take a step back after a
crushing defeat to open the season and then needing a 15-point fourth quarter
to beat Edmonton. It also would be wrong.
Pedigree aside, the signs are there that perhaps the older the core of this
roster gets, the less the regular season matters.
The defending champs aren't doing things with as much ease this season as in
the past, but a game at BC can turn the situation around quickly.
That's, of course, if your name isn't the Montreal Alouettes. The league's
true power over the last few seasons hasn't fared well in the Lions' Den,
having gone winless at BC since 2001.
Despite their struggles, expect the streak to stop and the Als get back at the
top.
Another thing to expect? Week 3's potential impact players:
Offensive performer: Kerry Watkins. If there's one team who could possibly
stop Watkins, it might just be the Lions. Watkins has 158 yards on eight
catches and three touchdowns this season, but should be in tough against the
league's stingiest defense.
Defense performer: John Bowman. He tied for the league lead in 2009 with
sacks, but the defensive stalwart has been a non-factor this year. Look for
the Lions to wake him up.
Next up: Someone in scheduling likes the Als, given their three-game home
stand
beginning next week against Hamilton. Here come the Alouettes.
WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
A late comeback by the Toronto Argonauts is the only thing preventing the
Bombers from being atop the East with a chance to go 3-0.
Fortunes weren't so kind to Winnipeg after all, as it squandered a golden
opportunity against Toronto to get an early lead in what is shaping up to be a
competitive division.
Just as few foresaw Hamilton's poor start, the same can be said for the Blue
Bombers, albeit in a more positive light.
After trudging through a couple seasons of mediocrity, new coach Paul LaPolice
must be pleased with what he's been given - an early offensive juggernaut with
the confidence of a playoff team.
Whether they can sustain this type of production on the offensive end (their
scoring differential of plus-18 is good for second in the CFL) will play
itself out as the Bombers' schedule gets tougher.
For now, first-year Bombers quarterback Buck Pierce will likely continue to do
what he's doing (42 of 60 for 657 yards and five touchdowns), giving Winnipeg
a chance to outscore any opponent on any given night.
Offensive performer: Buck Pierce. After throwing to the other team more than
his own last season (12 interceptions to 10 touchdowns), Pierce seems to have
found a comfort zone in Winnipeg. If that's not enough, he completed 68
percent of his passes with two TDs and a 133.9 QB rating in Week 1 versus
Hamilton, who the Bombers play again this week.
Defensive/special teams: Jovon Johnson. In his fifth year in the league, the
cornerback out of the University of Iowa has proved to be a sparkplug on the
defensive end. Johnson, who picked off CFL quarterbacks six times last year,
has been solid on special teams in 2010, returning 14 punts for a total of 114
yards.
Next up: First their rematch with Hamilton and then home to face Edmonton.
Winnipeg must take advantage of this weak stretch before the schedule gets
tougher.
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS
The Ti-Cats can't move any further down the standings, but they can move
further away from the pack.
Although Hamilton remains winless and at the bottom of the East, there's
reason to believe it can still turn this season around and mimic the
contending team that many predicted in the preseason.
After a tough loss on the road in Week 1 against an inspired Winnipeg squad,
Hamilton didn't show up for the second half last week against Calgary and now
must navigate through a tough part of the schedule.
Offensive performer: Kevin Glenn followed up a dismal opener in carving up the
Stampeders' secondary for 356 yards on 26-of-34 passing.
Defensive/special teams: About the only bright spot for Hamilton this year has
been the steady play of linebacker Jamall Johnson, whose size and
speed creates havoc for offensive players in the middle. His 18 tackles lead
the league and should help shrink the field for Pierce and the Bombers'
offense this week.
Next up: After Winnipeg, the Ti-Cats hit the road for back-to-back contests
versus Montreal and Saskatchewan. Suddenly, Week 3 is looking like a must-win
for Hamilton.
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Big 12 Conference betting odds
Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.
Work left to do:
Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.
Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.
Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.
My fellow Americans, as tempting as it may be to don the coat and HD-ready tie in order to deliver this State of the Game address before the cameras, I know better. As Brad Paisley sings on his latest album, "I'm so much cooler online."
The ideas for this annual essay to kick off the MySportsbook.com college football betting preview flowed like frat-house beer, which is to say they were cheap and spilled all over the floor. The 2007 season will be better than 2007, if only because there will be more of it. A year ago, the NCAA Football Rules Committee made two rule changes in the interest of speeding up the game. These changes went over like Kobe burgers at a vegan banquet.
To its credit, the rules committee rectified its mistakes. This season the clock once again will start when a kickoff is received, rather than when it is kicked, and the clock will not start so quickly on a change of possession.
However, kickoffs have been moved back five yards, to the 30, which will force more returns. (Thus forcing the clock to run. Clever, huh?) Special teams might decide a lot of games, because coaching strategy will come straight out of another new Paisley lyric (almost), I'd like to check you for kicks.
Paisley sings with a twang, which is why he's appropriate for this college football season. The sun coming up over the 2007 college football betting lines season rises from the south. It's a Southern football world. As the Southeastern Conference begins its 75th year, the power shift is noticeable.
Eight-figure budgets, glamorous settings -- and that's just for the head coaches. The SEC has four coaches who have won national championships -- the greatest aggregation of coaching know-how since Eddie Robinson dined alone.
Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer have given lie to the idea that a conference championship game is too daunting a hurdle on the road to No. 1. In six of the past 10 seasons, the national champions played and won a conference championship game -- three of the six (Tennessee, 1998; LSU, 2003; Florida, 2007) from the SEC.
There will be more of the same this season, if the preseason prognostications are correct. Six SEC teams are in the preseason coaches' poll, more than from any other conference. Only one conference has talent so deep that a team with 15 returning starters, including the best quarterback in the league, from an eight-win season is considered an afterthought. That may speak more to Kentucky's losing legacy than to the wisdom of the predictions, but there you have it. And seriously, keep an eye on Wildcats QB Andre' Woodson.
The reach of the South extends all the way to No. 1. Take a look at the team that is a consensus pick to win the national championship. The quarterback is from Shreveport. The best wide receiver is from Nashville. The top recruit is from New Orleans.
So what's the campus doing in Los Angeles? Hey, it is the University of Southern California.
USC lost two Pacific-10 Conference games a year ago, the first time that had happened in five seasons, and university officials withstood the urge to form blue-ribbon panels to unearth the cause of such a disaster. Instead, the Trojans gathered themselves and routed Michigan, 32-18, in the Rose Bowl.
USC's losses at Oregon State and at UCLA last year should have given pause to those who question the Pac-10's football prowess (such as, without naming names, L.M. from Baton Rouge). The league only got deeper this season; Dennis Erickson is taking over an Arizona State team that never quite got out of its own way under his predecessor, Dirk Koetter.
Erickson will resume his quest to become the first coach to win a national championship at two schools. Both he and Spurrier, now in his third season at South Carolina, returned to college football at schools with lower profiles than where they won their titles.
That isn't the case for the third coach looking for the national championship double. You may have missed this, but NASA reported the astronauts on the space shuttle last spring made contact with what can only be described as beings from another galaxy.
The leader of the aliens said, "We come in peace," followed by, "So how do you think Nick Saban will do at Alabama?"
The public is reacting to the new Crimson Tide coach as if he is the Barry Bonds of college football -- beloved at home for what his fans believe he is going to do, hated on the road for his intimidating attitude and for what his detractors believe he did (bend NCAA recruiting rules). I made this comparison from the dais at a charity dinner in Mobile, Ala., last month, and the chill that washed over me didn't come from the air conditioning.
Saban will attempt to prove that he can remake in Tuscaloosa what he built in Baton Rouge, much like another member of the national championship fraternity. Bobby Bowden is attempting to remake at Florida State what he built at, um, Florida State. Bowden rebuilt his offensive staff, bringing in four new coaches led by Saban's former offensive coordinator, Jimbo Fisher, to jump-start an offense that has been dead for a couple of years.
The Atlantic Coast Conference is expected to show new signs of life, too. That is said with no disrespect toward last season's champion, Wake Forest, which provided one of the best story lines of 2007. The Demon Deacons begin this season in their customary position, overshadowed by the Virginia Techs, Miamis and Florida States.
It's not that Wake will find it difficult to duplicate its success in 2007 as much as the feeling that success engendered. Surprising success is the narcotic of sport. It never feels quite so euphoric the next time. Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese has figured this out. He refers to 2007, when a league looked down upon by fans and foes alike took three undefeated teams into November, as "Cinderella."
The fairy tale may be over, but the Big East has four genuine Heisman Trophy candidates in Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, West Virginia tailback Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, and Rutgers tailback Ray Rice. Rutgers, as did Wake Forest and, of course, Boise State, proved last season that the have-nots in college football occasionally have quite a lot.
The Broncos' rousing 43-42 overtime victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl has raised the profile of all schools in conferences that don't get automatic BCS bids. This season, TCU and Hawaii are the preseason favorites to burst through the BCS doors and earn an at-large bid. The Warriors return 14 starters from an 11-3 team, including quarterback Colt Brennan.
Brennan not only broke the single-season record with 58 touchdown passes in 2007, but he also led Division I-A in passing efficiency (186.0). The senior is expected to contend for the Heisman Trophy, and neither his success nor the rise of his team should come as any surprise in the 2007 season.
After all, Hawaii is the southernmost team in the country.
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